Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Thursday: Flurries, accumulating to about 5cm. Light, north-westerly winds. Freezing level valley floor. Friday: Moderate snowfall starting in the afternoon. Freezing level gradually starting to rise. Mainly light, north-westerly winds.Saturday: Snow continuing, with 15-25cm possible. Freezing level rising to around 1400m.

The recent avalanche cycle, which included daily natural, human and remotely-triggered avalanches in the size 1.5-3 range, has slowed with time. While the likelihood of triggering has dropped, the potential consequences remain high due to the presence of persistent weak layers which can propagate widely and be triggered remotely, creating dangerous conditions.

Recent storm snow has become somewhat less reactive above the Feb 16. surface hoar layer and the early Feb. interface, however these layers are still exhibiting sudden planar ("pops") results in snowpack tests. The early Feb. interface consists of surface hoar (observed into the alpine, but most commonly found at and below treeline) and/or a crust (found on solar aspects, and on all aspects below about 1600m). These weaknesses are tricky to manage, as they are still very touchy in certain locations, but the distribution of them is variable, so it's hard to know exactly which slopes are concealing these layers. Local snowpack observations and a suspicious attitude will be required to safely manage these conditions. Old and new wind slabs, which exist on a variety of slopes, could step down to a persistent weakness and create a surprisingly large avalanche. Large cornices loom in some areas. Shallow snowpack areas may still harbour basal facets. The current snow surface is developing spotty surface hoar, surface faceting and sun crusts, which may bond poorly with incoming snow this weekend.