Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud with no new snow. Winds light from the southwest. Freezing levels to 200 metres with alpine temperatures near -9 Monday: Heavy snowfall delivering up to 30cm in the south of the region. Flurries producing 10-15cm in the north. Winds moderate gusting strong from the southwest with freezing levels rising to 800 metres. Alpine temperatures to -2 in the south, closer to -8 in the north.Tuesday: Continued snowfall in the south with accumulations up to 25cm. Only a trace of new snow in the north. Winds moderate gusting to strong from the southwest. Freezing levels remaining at 800 metres with alpine temperatures around -5.

While recent reports point only to new snow sluffing easily in steep terrain, continued potential exists for skier and rider triggering of wind slabs at upper elevations. The possibility of buried surface hoar in isolated sheltered areas and a possible weak bond at the storm/old snow interface also demand careful evaluation.

A layer of 3-5mm surface hoar has grown on the surface in the Duffey Lake area. Below this, 10-20cm of new snow fell over Thursday and Friday. This new snow has been redistributed in some exposed areas and added to the 30-60cm of storm snow the region has seen since Sunday. In higher elevation and exposed areas, this storm snow formed wind slabs in response to southwest winds. The new snow and wind slabs overlie a variable snow surface from last week that includes hard wind pressed or scoured areas, old wind slabs, weak faceted snow, or surface hoar. In the Duffey Lake area, recent snowpack tests gave hard sudden results down 60 cm at the interface between the recent storm snow and old snow on rounding faceted crystals. The widespread mid-November crust is typically down approximately 1-1.5m. Recent snowpack tests have shown the crust to be unreactive, but it could become a problem in shallow alpine start zones.