Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Sea To Sky.
Confidence
Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Sunday
Weather Forecast
Saturday: Snow (5 - 20cm possible) / Light to moderate westerly winds / Freezing level 1800m dropping to 1000m in the afternoon. Sunday: 5-25cm of new snow / Moderate southwest winds / Freezing level at 1500mMonday: Isolated flurries / Light north westerly winds / Freezing level at 1400mNote: Confidence is low for forecast wind values and precipitation amounts on Saturday and Sunday.
Avalanche Summary
On Friday ski cutting produced several size 1 soft slabs on immediate down wind (lee) features. Explosives control on Thursday and Friday triggered cornices at ridge crests, mostly Size 1.5 - 2. Looking forward, light amounts snow and strong winds on Friday are expected to promote a new round of wind slab activity in higher elevation lee terrain.
Snowpack Summary
On Friday morning only 3-5cm of new snow had fallen overnight as temperatures warmed up to +1 at tree line. Winds, however, were strong to extreme from the south (gusting to 121 Km/hr at the peak of Whistler) and created fresh wind slabs in exposed downwind (lee) terrain. At lower treeline and below, generally light amounts of snow now overlie a melt-freeze crust which formed during last Monday's warm storm. The new snow adds to the 170cm of snow that fell during the last few weeks of January. These series of storms were accompanied by strong to extreme winds which resulted in extensive scouring and impressive cornice growth in upper elevation terrain. These accumulations sit on a crust from mid-January which generally shows signs of bonding to the overlying snow; however, it has the potential to "wake-up" with a large trigger such as a cornice fall.Below this, the snowpack is thought to be generally strong and well-settled.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Cornices
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5