Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 12th, 2018 9:00AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Wet and Cornices.

VIAC Dan Goodwin, VIAC

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Vancouver Island.

Summary

Confidence

High - Stable weather pattern.

Travel & Terrain Advice

Avoid avalanche terrain on solar aspects in the afternoon and give cornices a wide berth when on ridgetop or below.

Avalanche Summary

Size 1 natural loose wet avalanches from steep solar aspects in the afternoon at treeline and below mostly originating from rocks and trees.

Snowpack Summary

No new snow since Thursday, which has settled and bonded well to previous old surfaces. Warm temperatures and high freezing levels on Sunday created moist snow on all but polar alpine aspects which remain dry. Clear skies overnight have created melt freeze crusts on previously moist aspects. Recent winds have grown cornices at ridgetop on NW through NE aspects.

Snowpack Details

Surface:

Diurnal melt freeze with the exception of polar alpine aspects. Upper: Old snow bonding and settling. Mid: Well settled. Lower: Well settled.

Past Weather

Spring diurnal. Warm during the day, cold at night. Light winds and no new snow.

Weather Forecast

Monday:

Clear skies, freezing levels to 2400m. Strong SE winds. Tuesday: 5-15mm of precipitation. Rain below 1800m with freezing levels from 2000-1200m. Strong SE winds. Wednesday: Cooling with freezing levels to 800m. Light NW winds.

Problems

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet
Solar radiation and warm temperatures will cause instabilities within surface snow. Expect natural loose wet activity from steep sunny terrain at all elevations in the afternoon. Human tiggering is highly likely. Size 1-1.5.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Cornices

An icon showing Cornices
Warming will create instabilities in the large cornices that have formed this winter. Natural cornice falls are possible and human triggered activity is very possible. Exposed ridges on NW through NE aspects at treeline and above could produce up to size 2 avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 14th, 2018 9:00AM

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