Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cariboos.
Our snowpack is young, relatively thin, and highly variable. Watch for thin wind slabs near ridge crest and be aware of the potential for larger avalanches in alpine features due to a deeply buried crust.
Confidence
Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.
Weather Forecast
Friday: Few clouds, freezing level around 1000 m, light southwest wind in most locations, no significant precipitation.
Saturday: Overcast, freezing level around 1200 m, moderate to strong southwest wind, 5 to 15 cm of snow possible above 1000 m.
Saturday Night: An additional 5 to 15 cm of snow possible.
Sunday: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 1000 m, moderate west wind, trace of snow possible.
Avalanche Summary
No recent avalanche activity has been reported. A natural avalanche cycle is possible late Saturday as storm snow begins to stack up on a weak and variable snowpack.
Snowpack Summary
Winter is slowly descending to the valleys with about 90 to 120 cm of snow present around 2000 m.
There are likely a variety of crusts in our young snowpack, but a problematic rain crust down about 50 cm is beginning to stand out. This "October Crust" is showing sudden & repeatable results when subjected to snowpack tests. Avalanches failing on this interface have the potential to be large and could easily suprise users who are getting out onto snow for the first time this season. There's a great summary of conditions at Allan Creek here.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
A buried crust can be found in the middle of the snowpack which we'll need to watch carefully as storms begin to roll in this weekend. Avalanches failing on this interface could step down to the ground, especially in places of smooth ground cover like grassy slopes, rock slabs, glacial ice, etc.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 2.5
Wind Slabs
Thin windslabs may be sensitive to human triggering, especially near ridge crest.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5