Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Tuesday

The winds are expected to build from the southwest on Monday, and moderate precipitation should start to accumulate snow by late afternoon. A trailing cold front is forecast for Tuesday. Snowfall amounts are un-certain and will depend on how much moisture is in the area when the cooler air arrives. Strong southwest winds and rising freezing levels are forecast for Wednesday. Models are showing the snow confined to near coastal areas, with only light amounts in the interior and South Rockies.

Reports of natural avalanches are getting less frequent, but reports of remotely triggered and easily triggered avalanches have increased. The average size of reported avalanches has dropped closer to 2.0 from the recent observations of 3.0. Many of these are failing on the mid-December surface hoar, mostly on north through east aspects from 1500m to the peaks. A skier remotely triggered an avalanche from 50m away and in many places shooting cracks and whumphing are further indicators of a very touchy, unstable snowpack. Explosive control is producing avalanches up to size 2.5 on all aspects at 2000 metres failing on the mid-december surface hoar.

There is now 50-80 cm above the mid-december weak layer of surface hoar. The wind has been strong at times during the recent storms, and has built stiff wind-slabs in the alpine and at treeline on North, East and in some locations South aspects. Warm temperatures have developed a soft slab in the storm snow in areas that were not affected by the wind. The surface hoar layer continues to provide easy and sudden shears in tests. The mid-pack is generally well settled. Facets at the base of the snowpack have not been reactive recently.