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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 12th, 2015–Dec 13th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kootenay Boundary.

Touchy fresh wind and storm slabs at higher elevations combined with lurking persistent weaknesses at lower elevations means you can't let your guard down this weekend.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The last Pacific storm system is expected to hit the region Saturday overnight. 10-15cm of snowfall is expected with freezing levels around 1000m or so. Light scattered snowfall may continue through the day on Sunday. Alpine winds are expected be strong from the SW in the morning but will ease in the afternoon. Monday is expected to be dry with a mix of sun and cloud. Freezing levels are forecast to drop to near valley bottom and alpine winds should be light from the NW. Tuesday looks to be similar with mainly dry condition and a mix of sun and cloud.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Thursday include an explosives-triggered 50cm thick persistent slab avalanche running on the early-December surface hoar on a convex roll below treeline in the Monashees.  No new avalanches were reported on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

Recent heavy rain to treeline elevations and wet snow at higher elevations has saturated and loaded the upper snowpack, forming a thick crust which now has up to 20-25cm of fresh snow on top (with perhaps a thin crust within it). Weaknesses linger within the recent snow as well as at deeper old snow surface interfaces, which consists of facets, surface hoar, and/or a crust at upper elevations (especially on southerly aspects). The most critical of these weak layers is surface hoar buried early December (now down 70-100cm), which has the potential for remote triggering, extensive releases and prolonged sensitivity to triggers. It is likely lurking in most sheltered areas treeline and below. The thick mid-November crust is just under this weak surface hoar layer.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow will likely be sensitive to human triggers, and particularly deep and weak on the leeward side of ridge crests and terrain breaks, and in wind-loaded chutes.
On steep slopes, pull over periodically or cut into a new line to manage sluffing.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

A layer of buried surface hoar can be found 70 to 110cm below the snow surface and has been most sensitive to human-triggering below treeline between 1400 and 1800m. Plan to travel below treeline as conservatively as possible.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.>Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5