Avalanche Forecast

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

A high pressure system has established itself across the coast. Clear skies and warm air at higher elevations will persist until Friday.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear skies, moderate west wind, freezing levels around 2500 m.

THURSDAY: Sunny, moderate southwest wind, freezing levels around 2600 m. Alpine high +5. 

FRIDAY: Scattered cloud with moderate to strong southwest wind. Freezing levels around the Duffy fall from 2500 m early in the day to 1000 m. Further south, an inversion remains with freezing levels around 2000 m. Alpine high 4. 

SATURDAY: A mix of sun and cloud, with moderate southwest winds. Alpine high -1. Freezing levels around 1000 m. 

Recent avalanche activity this week has been limited to small loose wet out of steep solar aspects, and natural cornice failures made weak by the prolonged heat. 

On Saturday a size 3 glide slab was observed at 2200 m in the north of the region. On Wednesday, a size 1.5 glide slab was observed at 1400 m in the Coquihalla area. Glide slabs are difficult to forecast. They are often a product of sustained warm weather, as melting snow lubricates between the ground and the snowpack.

High elevations hold pockets of dry snow, redistributed as wind slabs mostly found on north through east facing slopes, however recent winds have varied so expect loading on all aspects at ridge line. At lower elevations, the upper snowpack is moist or wet and may be capped with a breakable crust.

Below 2100m, the January 16 melt-freeze crust sits 15-30 cm deep. In the south of the region, this crust is one of many in the upper snowpack. There have also been reports of a layer of small surface hoar above this crust in the north of the region on south facing aspects at treeline and in the alpine but this does not seem to be widespread. 

The crust/facet layer formed in early December can be found around 100-150 cm deep, most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. In shallow features it may sit only 60cm below the surface. This layer showed no reactivity from the warming event on the weekend and is classified as dormant currently. Large loads such as a cornice falls may still be able to trigger avalanches on this layer, especially in areas where the snowpack thins. 

• Seek out sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.
• Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
• Avoid sun exposed slopes, especially if snow surface is moist or wet.
• Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.