Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 30th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs.
rbuhler,
Avalanche Canada
The storm snow is expected to be touchy on Monday, especially in wind loaded terrain and on steep slopes where it overlies surface hoar or a crust.
There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the intensity of the storm; check the bulletin in the morning for possible updates.
Summary
Confidence
Low - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.
Weather Forecast
A storm system brings snowfall to the region Sunday night and is expected to linger through part of the day on Monday. Modelled snowfall amounts and timing are highly variable which is creating a lot of uncertainty for conditions on Monday.Â
Sunday Night: Snowfall 15-30 cm, moderate to strong SW wind, treeline temperature -4 C°.
Monday: Snowfall 5-15 cm, moderate SW wind, treeline high around -6 C°.
Tuesday: Unsettled with snow flurries and sunny breaks both possible, light variable wind, treeline high around -10 C°.
Wednesday: Mainly sunny, light variable wind, treeline high around -15 C°.
Avalanche Summary
No recent avalanches have been reported in the past few days. On Sunday, a natural size 1 cornice release was reported failing overnight during strong winds.Â
Snowpack Summary
The new snow is burying a highly variable snow surface which consists of wind affected surfaces in exposed high elevation terrain, a melt freeze crust at lower elevations and on solar aspects extending into the alpine, and/or widespread surface hoar in sheltered areas which is appears to typically be 10-20 mm but as big as 30 mm in places.Â
The widespread January 18 rain crust was down around 15-30 cm prior to the current storm but has not been creating an avalanche problem recently. The midpack is strong and well-consolidated above the early December facet/crust layer which is now down 100-180 cm. This layer has been dormant recently and is not currently a concern for the region but could still be a problem in the future. See the most recent forecaster blog for more details on this layer.Â
Terrain and Travel
- Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
- Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
- Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.
Problems
Storm Slabs
The new snow is expected to be most reactive in wind loaded terrain and places where it overlies surface hoar and/or a crust. Loose dry avalanches should be expected on steep slopes where the new snow has not formed a slab.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 31st, 2022 4:00PM
