Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Sunday's weather remains wild, and varies greatly through the forecast region. Keep an eye on local weather forecasts as they are updated and keep a constant eye on changing weather and snowpack conditions if you are in the backcountry. 

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. 25-40 cm of snow expected with up to 50cm in the Strathcona Park and 5040/Hišimy̓awiƛ areas. Extreme southwest wind, possibly above 100 km/h. Freezing levels rising to around 900m, but with heavy snowfall, the snow/rain line could be a few hundred meters lower.

SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud in the morning, mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Very little snowfall in the north end of the region, 15-25 cm of snow expected through the central areas, and up to 55 cm in the south end of the region. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing levels dropping back to 250-500 during the day, but the south may go back up to 1000 m while the precipitation is the heaviest. 

MONDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. 0-10 cm of snow expected overnight, with the far south getting as much as 20 cm. Another 0-5 cm is forecast to fall through the day, but again, the south end of the forecast region may see more snow. Moderate southwest wind, trending to strong at higher elevations. Freezing level around 400 m.

TUESDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. 0-5 cm of snow expected. Again, with the possibility of more in the south end of the region. Moderate southwest wind, trending to strong at higher elevations. Freezing level around 500m.

 

With heavy snowfall, high wind, and warming temperatures, we expect many large to very large natural avalanches. Human triggered avalanches will be very likely in these conditions.

On Thursday, our Vancouver Island field team reported a size 1, naturally triggered windslab avalanche in the Mt. Beadnell area. It was 10-20 cm deep and started just below a ridge top. You can find more info on their Mountain Information Network (MIN) post.

On Friday, they saw a few more similar avalanches that likely occurred during the same wind event while in the Mt. App area.

40-80 cm of new snow is forecast to fall as temperatures rise and strong to extreme southwest winds blow. This is a recipe for unstable avalanche conditions.

This new snow falls on top of a variety of cold, low density, wind affected, or facetted snow surfaces, and it is not expected to bond well. 

On Friday, our Vancouver field team ventured out to Mt. Apps and reported large surface hoar in sheltered areas at treeline and below. Get more details from their Mountain Information Network (MIN) post here. Two other great MIN reports from Mt. Becher and Forbidden Ridge also reported surface hoar on Friday.

The midpack contains a variety of crusts from early and mid December that overly the thick Dec 7th crust.

The lower snowpack is generally strong and well bonded.

• Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
• Avoid areas with overhead hazard.
• Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.
• Be alert to conditions that change throughout the day.
• Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.