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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 13th, 2022–Mar 14th, 2022
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Carefully assess your line for wind slab before committing to it.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

Sunday night: 5 to 10cm of new snow expected with moderate to strong southwest winds. Low of -2 at 1600m. 

Monday: stormy with up to 10cm of new snow expected with moderate to strong southwest ridgetop winds. Freezing level rising to 1600m.

Tuesday: stormy with up to 40 cm of new snow . Moderate to strong southwest winds and freezing levels rising to 1800 m.

Wednesday: a mix of sun and cloud with the possibility of light flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Freezing levels rising to 1500 m. Light westerly winds.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday ski cutting produced several slab avalanches to size 1.5 in treeline terrain. Natural loose dry avalanches to size 1.5 were observed in alpine and treeline terrain.

On Friday one sled triggered size two slab avalanche was reported. This avalanche was triggered in an open treeline feature on a west aspect and is believed to have failed on the late January layer.

On Tuesday a group of skiers remotely triggered a slab avalanche on an east aspect near ridgetop. We suspect it failed on facets above a crust. Wind loading above this layer was a factor.

Snowpack Summary

5 to 15cm of recent snow has been redistributed by southwest winds forming wind slab on north and south aspects. South aspects are a mix of scoured and sun crusted surfaces. Moist snow could be observed at lower elevations.

A substantial crust from the start of March is down 30cm in the far southern part of the region.

The late January surface hoar layer is down around 100cm.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid areas of wind loaded snow.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

wind slab can be found in exposed treeline and alpine terrain. Sensitivity to triggering could be greater where wind slab has formed over a crust.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2