Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 21st, 2019 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Loose Wet and Wet Slabs.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

http://www.pc.gc.ca/en/pn-np/ab/jasper/bulletins/B87F4A98-830E-4EB0-A084-AEC07B5273B6Overall condition, hazard, and overnight recovery will vary with both aspect and elevation. Ice climbers are especially vulnerable to wet slides from above because of longer exposure times; chose your climbs carefully.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Strong solar effect, with clear skies forecast for Friday. An inversion has kept higher elevations above freezing, with no overnight cooling to help the recovery and stabilization of a stressed snowpack. Freezing levels will remain over 3000m. Cooling and some precip, likely in the form of rain initially, is forecast starting Saturday evening.

Snowpack Summary

Spring snowpack on solar aspects, with minimal crust recovery overnight rapidly breaking down under daily intense solar input. The entire snowpack is isothermal below treeline on solar aspects. The snowpack remains dry on shady aspects at upper elevations, but may become reactive with continued warm temps.

Avalanche Summary

Many solar aspects at TL and below have slid and continue to slide around the forecast region. Nearly no activity has been observed on Northern aspects, especially in the Alpine.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Problems

Loose Wet

No recent overnight cooling to help recovery. An inversion, layered around 2200-2300m may keep BTL cool overnight but not TL or above. This will mean a constant wet loose hazard, and exposure to BTL run outs should be carefully considered and limited

Start and finish early before the surface crusts melt.Avoid solar aspects.

Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Wet Slabs

The upper snowpack is saturated with water, creating Wet Slabs which are failing on solar aspects, sometimes to ground. In shallow areas, these are failing on the basal layers and can move fast on the dryer, weak, facetted snow below.

Avoid exposure to overhead solar avalanche terrain, avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.If triggered loose wet sloughs may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 2.5

Valid until: Mar 22nd, 2019 4:00PM