Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 16th, 2023 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs.

cgarritty, Avalanche Canada

South Rockies, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

The weak basal snowpack continues to demand patience and diligent group management. Keep regrouping in safe locations, limiting the number of people exposed to avalanche terrain, and avoiding shallow rocky start zones.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported in the region.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

High freezing levels over the weekend produced moist surface snow up to 2000 m, now a crust. Wind has stripped open and alpine terrain and there is little snow left for transport. Forecast light flurries won't do much to change this picture over the next few days.

Snowpack testing from our field team indicates the snowpack is gaining strength. A facet/crust layer from mid-December is down 40-70 cm (and 2 cm thick at TL elevation), below the mid-pack is settled and consolidated.

The basal snowpack, or bottom 20-40 cm, consists of faceted grains and is associated with the deep persistent avalanche problem. Treeline snow depths are roughly 120-160 cm.

Weather Summary

Monday night

Mainly cloudy. Light west or northwest winds.

Tuesday

Increasing cloud. Light west or northwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around -5.

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light to moderate west or southwest winds, increasing over the day. Treeline high temperatures around -5.

Thursday

Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Light west winds. Treeline high temperatures around -4 C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Weak, faceted grains make up the basal snowpack. Any avalanche triggered this deep will likely be large and destructive. Be especially suspicious of shallow, rocky, or cross-loaded areas with variable snow depths.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

2 - 3

Valid until: Jan 17th, 2023 4:00PM