Avalanche Forecast
Regions: East Island, North Island, South Island, Vancouver Island, West Island.
The recent storm snow could still avalanche under the weight of a rider on slopes that are steep enough to ride. Where the snow is dry, avoid dense, slabby snow that cracks around you. Where the snow is wet, avoid snow that pinwheels or snowballs down the slope, or looks and feels like a slurpee.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
No recent avalanches have been reported, however, heavy precipitation and extreme winds through the recent storm likely triggered a natural avalanche cycle at upper elevations.
Snowpack Summary
It is likely that most areas below 1700m have seen significant rain, which is soaking and shrinking the snowpack. Watch for a new crust to form on the surface as the temperature drops the next few days. There may be 40-80cm of new snow that has a accumulated through this recent storm in the highest alpine terrain.
A crust that was 90-130cm below the surface of the snowpack had been highlighted as a critical avalanche layer in recent snowpack tests, but no avalanches have been reported on this layer, and we expect the recent rain and forecasted temperature drop to eliminate our concern about this layer.
Snowpack depths at treeline are around 120 cm, tapering quickly with elevation. Although the snowpack in most forested areas below treeline remains below threshold depths for avalanches, many steep bluffs, cutbanks, and alpine features in the upper below treeline band are capable of producing avalanches.
Weather Summary
Friday Night
Continuing rain at all but highest alpine elevations tapering off in the morning. Light to moderate south wind. Freezing level around 1500m.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy. No new precipitation. Light southeast wind. Freezing level around 1400m.
Sunday
Cloudy with scattered flurries. Light southeast wind. Freezing level around 1200m.
Monday
Mix of sun and cloud. No new precipitation. Light southwest wind. Freezing level around 900 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
- Stick to simple terrain features and be certain your location isn't threatened by overhead hazard.
- The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
- When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
50-100 cm of snow may have accumulated at upper elevations during the recent storm. Expect deeper deposits in lee terrain due to extreme southerly winds.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 3
Loose Wet
A high freezing level brought heavy rain, saturating and weakening the surface snow. As freezing levels drop, this wet snow will likely freeze into a crust and become less likely to avalanche.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2