Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 1st, 2014 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Bundle up and stay warm out there!

Summary

Weather Forecast

Cold temperatures and a steady north wind making it difficult to enjoy the fantastic sunny weather. Light snow is forecasted for late Sunday afternoon and continue through the week. No reprieve from the cold for Sunday with a forecasted high of -23 degrees but the moderate winds should die down as the flow shifts slowly from north to the south.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is well settled with a supportive mid-pack above 1,900m. Above this elevation a concerning weakness can be found consisting of decomposing surface hoar and or facetted grains. This may be found 30-70cm down. Moderate winds have stiffened the surface snow in open areas above tree line. Solar aspects below 1,900m will have a sun crust.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported. Some previous natural avalanches have been observed in solar aspects below tree line and in cross-loaded lee features.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Monday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Moderate north winds have stiffen up the surface slabs in open areas. This slab rests above a persistent facet layer 30cm to 45cm down.

Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.The best powder will be found in sheltered locations at or below treeline.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

The strong mid-pack is bridging the layer well through the forecast area. Its spatial variability over the terrain does make it difficult to predict and snowpack tests show it to be very weak. Be careful in shallow start zones.

Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Mar 2nd, 2014 4:00PM