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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 11th, 2013–Mar 12th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Jasper.

Warming temperatures will increase the avalanche danger at all elevations over the next  24 hours.

Weather Forecast

Upper elevation winds will be from the SW and be in the strong range. Temperatures will start to increase over the next 48 hours.  Freezing levels will increase to mid treeline by mid Thursday. Snow accumulations may be up to 35cm over the next 3 days with rain at lower elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Fresh snow is forecast over the next 72 hours. At upper elevations this will quickly become slab like as the forecasted strong SW winds transport it onto East and Northeast slopes. At lower elevations warming temperatures will result in moist snow conditions particularly on southerly facing slopes. 

Avalanche Summary

With a rising freezing level, strong winds and up to 35cm of snow the avalanche danger will increase on all aspects and all elevations.  Slab avalanches will dominate the  alpine and windy  treeline locations on NE aspects. At lower elevations the number and frequency of moist and wet point release avalanche will increase over the next 2 or 3 days.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Wednesday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Last week's snow will continue to add to the wind slabs in the alpine and at treeline. Warming temperatures will increase the likelihood of triggering slopes.
Use caution in lee areas in the alpine. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Storm Slabs

Soft slab conditions  exist on gully sidewalls and some large alpine slopes. Warming temperatures will increase the chance of triggering avalanches at treeline elevations on southerly slopes.
Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.Travel early before the heat of the day, and avoid big slopes in the afternoon.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

If the sun peaks out, loose avalanches with significant mass may occur. They are initiating out of steep West or South facing high elevation rocks or gullies.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3