Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 16th, 2014 4:20PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.

max darrah, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Unusually warm temps are expected this weekend, which will increase the avalanche danger at all elevations. The potential for natural large avalanches running full path will increase with the rising temperatures.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Mild temperatures to continue until the weekend, with maximum values expected on Saturday (+8C at valley bottom!). Freezing levels to rise to 1900m on Saturday. No new precipiation is expected. Winds to remain light Southwesterly.

Snowpack Summary

Warmer temperatures at TL and below are promoting settlement in the snowpack. Recent new snow has been redistributed by strong SW winds creating wind slab in open areas at all elevations. This sits over a supportive mid-pack at higher elevations. Extensive scouring and cross loading in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

Helicopter control work in the Columbia Icefields area today produced numerous large avalanches to size 3 on a variety of aspects in the alpine. Avalanches showed good propagation and released either at the storm snow interface or on basal facets. Many ran full path and smaller slides were able to step down to deeper instabilities.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Basal weakness means that the potential for full depth avalanches still exists. Smaller avalanches have the potential to trigger deeper instabilities.

Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.Be aware of the potential for wide propagations.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are still touchy at upper elevations. Extensive scouring and cross loading was apparent today during helicopter control efforts on upper targets in the alpine.

Avoid cross loaded features.Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 17th, 2014 4:00PM