Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

Friday night: Snow amounts 5-20 cm with strong ridgetop winds. Freezing levels 1000 m.Saturday: Mostly cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Light winds from the SW, alpine temperatures -7 and freezing levels 1100 m.Sunday: Mostly cloudy with snow amounts 5-10 cm. Moderate winds from the S-SW. Alpine temperatures near -10 and freezing levels valley bottom.Monday: Cloudy with sunny breaks and a trace of new snow. Ridgetop winds strong from the SW. Alpine temperatures near -11.

No new avalanche reports for Friday. On Thursday, a size 2.5 deep persistent slab avalanche was reported from the Elkford- North riding area. It was from approximately 2500 m on a SE aspect. It looked to be 24 hrs old and likely failed earlier in the storm. It did fail within the basal facets (deep persistent slab) and scrubbed down to rocks. Widespread loose dry avalanches were also noted from steep terrain features up to size 1.5. Natural avalanche activity may taper off, however; slab avalanches may be primed for human triggering.

Another 14 cm of low density storm snow arrived overnight bringing the recent snow totals up to 80 cm in the past week. The new snow will likely have a poor bond to previous old snow surfaces that consist of stiff wind slabs, crusts and facets. Strong southwesterly winds is redistributing the new snow onto leeward slopes, building thicker and stiffer slabs. The mid-pack in this region is generally well settled and strong, but the bottom third of the snowpack is composed of weak facets (sugary snow crystals). Approximately 100-120 cm of settled snow sits above the weak layer of sugary, rotten facets that developed mid- December. This remains a concern and should be on your radar, especially with continued forecast snow and strong winds potentially overloading the weakness.