Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Overnight: Temperatures are expected to rise overnight at higher elevations, and drop down to close to freezing at 1600 metres. Upper elevation winds should be moderate South Westerlies Saturday: Clear, sunny, and very warm in the alpine with light Westerly winds. Expect +5 degrees in the alpine with strong solar radiation.Sunday: .Temperatures begin to cool down late Sunday with variable light winds. Freezing level around 1400m.

1 size 2.5  snowmobile triggered avalanche in steep shallow snowpack, also several size 2 natural avalanches in the past 24 to 48 hrs. and ,most likely triggered by radiation heating, failing to near ground level. Areas of shallow snowpack are of special concern, as well as areas where there is a hazard from above such as cornices or steep south facing cliffs.

Expect extensive wind transport and wind slab development in all areas of the region. Recent storm snow varies from 40-70 cm across the region and I suspect that in some alpine areas storm snow has been transported into slabs that are more than a metre thick. Persistent weak layers of buried crusts/facets/surface hoar continue to be a concern, and may have been the failure plane for recent large natural avalanches. Forecast very warm temperatures may result in loose wet avalanches or cornice falls that may trigger the persistent weak layers or the basal depth hoar. Strong solar radiation combined with above freezing temperatures in the alpine could create very touchy triggering on Southerly aspects.