Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 17th, 2014 8:46AM
The alpine rating is Wind Slabs, Persistent Slabs and Cornices.
, the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems includeSummary
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Overnight: Temperatures are expected to rise overnight at higher elevations, and drop down to close to freezing at 1600 metres. Upper elevation winds should be moderate South Westerlies Saturday: Clear, sunny, and very warm in the alpine with light Westerly winds. Expect +5 degrees in the alpine with strong solar radiation.Sunday: .Temperatures begin to cool down late Sunday with variable light winds. Freezing level around 1400m.
Avalanche Summary
1 size 2.5Â snowmobile triggered avalanche in steep shallow snowpack, also several size 2 natural avalanches in the past 24 to 48 hrs. and ,most likely triggered by radiation heating, failing to near ground level. Areas of shallow snowpack are of special concern, as well as areas where there is a hazard from above such as cornices or steep south facing cliffs.
Snowpack Summary
Expect extensive wind transport and wind slab development in all areas of the region. Recent storm snow varies from 40-70 cm across the region and I suspect that in some alpine areas storm snow has been transported into slabs that are more than a metre thick. Persistent weak layers of buried crusts/facets/surface hoar continue to be a concern, and may have been the failure plane for recent large natural avalanches. Forecast very warm temperatures may result in loose wet avalanches or cornice falls that may trigger the persistent weak layers or the basal depth hoar. Strong solar radiation combined with above freezing temperatures in the alpine could create very touchy triggering on Southerly aspects.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Cornices
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 18th, 2014 2:00PM