Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Saturday: Mainly cloudy with rain showers or scattered flurries bringing 5-10 cm depending on drainage. Mostly light westerly winds with strong gusts associated with snow flurry activity. Freezing levels as high as 2000 m. Sunday: Cloudy with flurries bringing 10-20 cm depending on drainage. Generally moderate but gusty westerly winds. Freezing levels dropping slightly to 1800 m. Monday: Mostly cloudy with snow flurries bringing another 5-10 cm. Generally light westerly winds gusting with flurry activity, and freezing levels down to 1600 m.

A recent natural cornice triggered Size 2.5 avalanche was observed Smith Basin area north of Elkford. As the snowpack warms during the day, loose wet surface avalanches as well as deeper persistent slab avalanches become sensitive to triggering.

Recent overnight freezes have been stabilizing the wet upper snowpack, at least until the surface crust beaks down with daytime heating. This surface melt/freeze cycle is extending as high as alpine elevations on south aspects in the southern part of the region, but north of Elkford it's still winter-like with dry snow above 1800 m. Recent storm and wind slabs are bonding poorly to buried surface hoar and facets particularly on sheltered slopes such as cut blocks, and crust on previously sun-exposed slopes. Warm temperatures and sun-exposure have been making these and deeper persistent slabs very sensitive to triggers. The deep facet/crust persistent weakness buried at the beginning of February, now down 100-150+ cm, has been described by avalanche professionals as "very weird". Although widespread, it has been highly variable in terms of reactivity. Weak basal facets exist in many areas, but without a large load, triggering now is unlikely.