Avalanche Forecast

Fair

Unsettled conditions are expected for the forecast period with light flurries and periods of sun. A more organized system is expected for late-Wednesday or Thursday.Monday: Cloudy with sunny breaks, flurries 1-4cm, freezing level rising to around 1200m, ridgetop wind 40-60 SWTuesday: Cloudy with sunny breaks, flurries 3-6cm, freezing level around 1300m, ridgetop wind 30-50 SWWednesday: Cloudy with sunny breaks, flurries 3-6cm, freezing level around 1400m, ridgetop wind 20-40 SW

We have not received any reports of new avalanches since the solar triggered activity a few days ago. However, recent snowpack tests imply that where the layer still exists, the potential for large, destructive avalanches still exists.

The primary concern remains a persistent slab that sits on a stubborn persistent weak layer consisting of a crust, facets, and/or surface hoar. The layer continues to show a high degree of sensitivity to human triggers. Wide propagations and remote triggering remain a concern. In the thinner snowpack areas such as the Crowsnest and northern Elk Valley, the slab is typically 30-60cm thick. In thicker areas such as the Flathead and around Fernie, the slab typically varies in thickness from 70-150cm. Check out the South Rockies Blog for a video discussing the persistent weak layer and the current avalanche problem. Outflow winds from the N-NE created reverse-loaded wind slabs a few days ago. More recent strong SW winds have created new, touchy wind slabs on the opposite aspects.  Cornices remain a concern along ridge lines and threaten the slopes below. South facing slopes have formed a sun crust on the snow surface. New surface hoar formation up to 4mm and near-surface faceting are also being reported. A weakness at the base of the snowpack may still exist in isolated areas of the region but triggering has become unlikely.  New snowfall is currently burying this layer.