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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 16th, 2017–Feb 17th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

New snow and rain has created touchy snowpack conditions. Give the storm snow time to settle before pushing into bigger terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Another 5-10 cm of new snow with freezing level dropping to 1000 m.FRIDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods, moderate southwest winds, freezing level up to 1500 m.SATURDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries and up to 5 cm of new snow later in the day, moderate southwest winds, freezing level around 1300 m.SUNDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries, strong southwest winds, freezing level around 1300 m.

Avalanche Summary

Widespread storm slab activity was reported on Thursday. This included several explosive and naturally triggered size 2 avalanches in the Lizard range. Ski cutting also produced size 1 wet slabs in rain saturated snow at below treeline elevations. Looking ahead to Friday, natural storm slab activity should taper off but human triggering will remain likely at higher elevations.

Snowpack Summary

The region received 30-40 mm of precipitation on Thursday, which fell as rain in the valleys and as snow above 1500 m. The new snow should settle into a reactive storm slab at higher elevations. Beneath the new snow, you'll find a mix of hard old wind slabs, melt-freeze crusts and moist snow from the recent warm spell. Some weaknesses may still exist within the 90 cm of storm snow from last week; however, recent warming has likely helped strengthen these layers. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and stable but isolated basal weaknesses may exist in shallow snowpack areas.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Fresh storm slabs will remain reactive at higher elevations, especially in wind-exposed terrain.
Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded slopes

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3