Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 2nd, 2017 4:24PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs.

Avalanche Canada swerner, Avalanche Canada

Wind slabs are the primary concern and may be reactive to rider triggers. In shallow snowpack areas wind slabs could step down to deeper weak layers initiating a large and destructive avalanche.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The pattern finally changes as the cold arctic high shifts, allowing pacific low pressure systems to invade the Interior through the forecast period.Friday: Snow amounts 5-10 cm with light winds from the South. Alpine temperatures near -6 and freezing levels 700 m.Saturday: Snow amounts 10-20 cm with ridgetop winds generally light, gusting strong from the southwest. Alpine temperatures near -5 with freezing levels rising to 1200 m.Sunday: Snow amounts 15-25 cm with ridgetop winds light-strong from the southwest. Alpine temperatures near -2 and freezing levels rising to 1300 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday surface sluffing and solar induced loose dry avalanches up to size 1.5 were reported. Depending on snow amounts for Friday you could see loose dry sluffing from steeper terrain features and potentially new wind slab development. The new snow will likely have a poor bond to the old snow surfaces. Expect buried wind slabs to linger on lee and crossloaded features at higher elevations.

Snowpack Summary

In exposed areas at treeline and in the alpine, the surface snow consists of stiff wind slab or wind effected snow. Adding to the mix you may see sun crust on steep southerly slopes and surface hoar in sheltered areas. Below the surface, 50-65 cm of settled snow now sits above an interface that was buried in mid-January. The interface is composed of facets, surface hoar, and/or sun crusts and the strength is reportedly variable. Recent snowpack tests have shown sudden results on that interface. Areas with thin snowpacks (e.g. less than 150 cm) have a generally weak snowpack structure with sugary facets near the ground. This includes shallow alpine slopes and most of the Rossland range. These deeper weaknesses warrant monitoring and create a complicating picture. It may be a low probability that you would trigger an avalanche that failed on these basal facets, however; the consequences could be detrimental. This makes for tricky especially decision making. These layers may be unreactive or even sit dormant now with this stable weather pattern but they could reawaken with a change.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Switching winds have formed stiff pockets of wind slab on exposed features near ridge crests and cross-loaded slopes. Be cautious around thin rocky areas where wind slabs could 'step down' to deeper weak layers.
Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Feb 3rd, 2017 2:00PM