Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Brrrrrr! Cold and dry conditions persist under arctic air

Monday night: Mostly clear, light north wind, alpine temperature -27 C.

Tuesday: Mostly clear, light variable wind, alpine high temperature -25 C.

Wednesday: Mostly clear, light north wind, alpine high temperature -26 C.

Thursday: Mostly clear, light to moderate northeast wind, alpine high temperature -28 C.

A very large (size 3) natural wind slab avalanche was reported yesterday near Valemount. It released on a northeast aspect above 2500 m and broke 100 cm deep. On Sunday, there was a second-hand report of a large (size 2) wind slab on a north aspect at 1800 near Barkerville. This avalanche was thought to have been initiated by a machine-triggered cornice fall on Saturday.

Over the past week, there have been reports from Chappell, White River, and Allen Creek of avalanches releasing on a persistent weak layer of surface hoar. Although the likelihood of triggering these avalanches is decreasing, this weak layer warrants assessment in open, sheltered slopes at treeline where this layer is likely pronounced and preserved.

Small (size 1-1.5) loose dry avalanches in unconsolidated snow have been reported in steep terrain.

Up to 25 cm of low density snow over the past several days has combined with intermittent northwest winds to create wind slabs which may be possible to human trigger in specific lee features. In sheltered areas, cohesion-less powder may be prone to dry loose avalanches that can run far and fast in these cold, dry conditions. With clear skies, there is uncertainty as to how much direct sun on Tuesday might warm steep slopes midday given the frigid temperatures. 

40-70 cm of snow from the past week is settling over a reactive weak layer of surface hoar. Reactivity on this layer has primarily been observed at treeline and in "treeline-like" features that are below treeline. Snowpack tests results continue to show the potential for propagation on this layer, like this MIN report from near Barkerville on Sunday. 

A second weak of layer of surface hoar from mid January is down around 70-110 cm and is most prevalent in sheltered, open slopes at treeline and below. 

Deep persistent weak layers can still be found in the lower snowpack. These weak layers are most likely to be triggered from rocky areas with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack.

• Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
• Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
• Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.