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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 13th, 2016–Feb 14th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

I'm expecting the incoming storm for Sunday to be fairly moderate. If you get more than 20 cm new snow with wind, then bump the danger up by one rating.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Sunday: 10 cm/mm or so of snow/rain depending on elevation. Freezing level expected to be around 1500 m. Winds westerly 40-60 km/h.  Monday: mostly dry until the late afternoon/evening. Winds light during the day, but picking up to become strong southwesterly in the afternoon. Monday night/Tuesday: A storm is expected to bring around 20 cm/mm of snow/rain with freezing levels around 1700 m and strong southwesterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Rain-soaked lower elevations are unlikely to see much in the way of avalanche activity, but avalanches will become likely at higher elevations with continued snow and rain. Cornices and storm slabs were released with explosives on Friday up to size 2.0 within the new storm snow in the Whistler area.

Snowpack Summary

Recent warm temperatures left us with moist snow up to around 1800 metres.  Subsequent cooling has left new crusts in many areas. Wind slabs are forming at higher elevations. Cornices are reported to be huge and collapse has become more likely with additional loading and high freezing levels. About 50-90cm below the surface, you'll likely find a rain crust which formed on January 28th. This crust is widespread and exists up to about 2100m. Where it still exists, the mid-January surface hoar layer may be found between 130 and 200 cm below the surface. The combination of warm temperatures and subsequent gradual cooling is making avalanches failing on these deeper layers unlikely.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Expect new storm slabs to develop in steep, higher elevation terrain in response to loading from new snow and wind.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Looming cornices could collapse, especially during storms or during warm weather.
Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4