Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 19th, 2014 9:07AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Wet and Deep Persistent Slabs.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

Sea To Sky.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A strong ridge of high pressure continues to dominate with no sign of a breakdown in sight. The freezing level continues to hover around a very un-january-like, 3000m.Monday: Freezing Level: 2500 - 3000m Precip: Nil Wind: Light, VariableTuesday: Freezing Level: 2500 - 3000m Precip: Nil Wind: Light, Variable Mod W at ridgetop.Wednesday: Freezing Level: 2000 - 2700m Precip: Nil Wind: Light, NW

Avalanche Summary

No new observations on Saturday. It seams afternoon cloud and SW winds kept the temperatures reasonable. I suspect the affect of continued warm temps will lessen.

Snowpack Summary

Very warm alpine temperatures have created a moist snow surface. Previous winds have scoured windward slopes and sculpted sastrugi (raised ridges of snow) in exposed areas. Average treeline snowpack depths are around 170 cm. Initially, the bond below the most recent storm snow was reported to be weak and comprised surface hoar, at least in some locations. Recent snowpack tests indicate that this layer has gained strength and it is difficult to find a shear within the top 100 cm of the snowpack.There are two lower layers that professionals area tracking near the base of the snowpack. A facet/crust combo from late November is still giving "sudden" results in compression tests and exists at treeline and alpine elevations. Facets likely still exist at the base of the snowpack, especially in areas where the snowpack was particularly shallow early on in the season. The most likely places you would find this problem is in the alpine in shallow rocky areas.

Problems

Loose Wet

I suspect that the snowpack has largely adjusted to the warm temperatures. Regardless, it's prudent to adjust travel plans to avoid sun drenched slopes in the afternoon.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Cornices become weak with daytime heating. >

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

The affect of warm alpine temps will likely diminish in the coming days, but intense direct sun could destabilize the snowpack, especially on southerly aspects.

Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

4 - 7

Valid until: Jan 20th, 2014 2:00PM