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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 31st, 2015–Jan 1st, 2016
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Happy New Year! Warm air and sun may create some touchy pockets of wind slab in the short term. Avalanche danger trending down for the weekend.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Clear skies and light winds throughout the forecast period. Valley temperatures between -10 overnight and -5 during the day. Alpine temperatures between 0.0 and +5.0 on Friday, and around 0.0 or slightly below freezing on Saturday and Sunday.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday a size 1-1.5 skier-triggered wind slab avalanche was observed in Body Bag Bowl in the Spearhead Range. The rider went for a 30m ride and lost a pole, but did not sustain any injuries. On the same day, a size 1.5 slab avalanche was triggered on Rainbow Mountain. The avalanche, which occurred on a lower-elevation northeast facing slope, is thought to have failed on the mid-December surface hoar. On Wednesday, there was a report of a rider-triggered size 1 wind slab avalanche near Adit Lakes in the Fitzsimmons Range. The avalanche occurred on a northwest facing slope at 1950m. Small solar-induced loose wet avalanches have also been reported. The size and likelihood of loose wet avalanches will increase with warmer alpine temperatures expected during the forecast period.

Snowpack Summary

Last weekend, the region received 15-20cm of low-density snow. At higher elevations, generally moderate winds have redistributed these accumulations into soft wind slabs in exposed lee terrain. Due to continued cool temperatures, these wind slabs have likely required more time than usual to settle and gain strength. Solar radiation has also come into play, and depending on the time of day, steep solar aspects may be moist or refrozen. In the upper 70cm of the snowpack you may find a layer of weak surface hoar which was buried in mid-December. Reports indicate this layer is spotty in its distribution, but may be something to watch as the overlying slab gets deeper and gains cohesion through settlement, warming and wind pressing. The mid and lower snowpack are generally considered to be strong and well-settled.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Pockets of wind slab may not be well bonded to the old surface. Initial warming may increase the sensitivity to triggering wind slabs.
Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.>Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Loose Wet

Loose moist or wet snow may release naturally on solar aspects or be easily triggered by light loads.
Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Be alert to conditions that change with aspect, elevation and time of day.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2