Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Vancouver Island.
Assess for wind slabs in steep terrain prior to committing yourself. Treat the danger as a step higher and watch for storm slab development if you find more than 20 cm of snow accumulate over the day.
Confidence
High - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.
Weather Forecast
MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds with no precipitation, 10 km/h east wind, treeline temperature -3 C.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm with local amounts up to 30 cm possible, 20 to 40 km/h southeast wind, treeline temperature -4 C.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with snowfall then clearing, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 20 to 40 km/h southeast wind, treeline temperature -4 C.
THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud with afternoon snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 20 km/h east wind, treeline temperature -3 C.
Avalanche Summary
This MIN describes the recent snow as being reactive but only producing small avalanches. Looking forward, riders have the potential of triggering this recent snow, particularly in steep, wind-loaded terrain features.
Observations are limited at this time of year, so please consider posting to the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
Anywhere from 5 to 30 cm of snow is forecast to accumulate on Tuesday with strong southeast wind. This adds to the 25 cm that accumulated over the past couple days in the middle of the island and 5 cm in the north. The snow may be blown into wind slabs in steep terrain features at higher elevations. Local areas that receive more than 20 cm should watch for storm slab development. All this snow sits on a hard melt-freeze crust.
The remainder of the snowpack is strong, consisting of hard snow and melt-freeze crusts.
Terrain and Travel
- Carefully evaluate bigger terrain features on an individual basis before committing to them.
- Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
- When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind slabs may be found in steep terrain features at treeline and alpine elevations from northeast to southeast wind. Areas that see more than 20 cm of new snow could have new storm slabs form too. Evaluate for slab formation prior to committing to large features.
Aspects: North, South, South West, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2