Avalog Join
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 12th, 2021–Mar 13th, 2021
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Rising freezing levels and sunshine will increase the likelihood of avalanches and cornice failures. Pay close attention to temperatures and minimize exposure to cornices and steep, sun-exposed slopes during the heat of the day.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy / light to moderate southwest wind / alpine low temperature near -1 

SATURDAY - Mainly cloudy, clearing in the morning, and then mainly sunny / moderate southwest wind / alpine high temperature near 0 / freezing level 2000 m

SUNDAY - Flurries, 10-15 cm / strong south wind / alpine high temperature near -2 / freezing level 1500 m

MONDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / light variable wind / alpine high temperature near -4 / freezing level 1500 m

Avalanche Summary

Rising freezing levels and sunshine will increase the likelihood of avalanches and cornice failures on Saturday.

On Thursday, there was a report of a human-triggered size 2.5 wind slab avalanche on a southwest aspect at 2300 m, in extreme terrain. 

There have been reports most days this week of a few natural and/or human-triggered wind slab and dry loose avalanches, ranging between size 1-2, as well as natural size 1 loose wet avalanches on solar aspects at lower elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs can be found on leeward slopes at upper elevations and remain possible to trigger. Solar aspects have a crust on the surface, that may become moist with rising freezing levels and direct sun. Soft, dry snow can be found in sheltered, shaded areas. 

Massive cornices exist on ridgelines, which can act as triggers on slopes below. 

The mid and lower snowpack is well settled and strong in most areas. A weak layer of facets buried in mid-February may still be found but has been gaining strength.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
  • Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Minimize your exposure time below cornices.

Avalanche Problems

Cornices

Cornices begin to weaken when exposed to warm temperatures and intense sun. When they fail, they can have enough mass to be very destructive, and they can also trigger slab avalanches on the slopes below them. 

Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Pay attention to the pattern of wind-drifting in the terrain where you are traveling and watch for cracking or changes in snow stiffness. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2