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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 8th, 2019–Jan 9th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Rockies.

Concern remains for the weak layers that exist near the base of the snowpack. These deep persistent weak layers can be very difficult to manage, so a conservative approach to terrain is recommended.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels and alpine temperatures are tricky to forecast in the coming days with mild temperatures and temperature inversions dominating the weather pattern this week. TUESDAY NIGHT - Cloudy with isolated flurries / southwest winds, 30-60 km/h / alpine low temperature near -9WEDNESDAY - Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries / southwest winds, 40-60 km/h / alpine high temperature near -3 / Alpine temperature inversionTHURSDAY - Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries / southwest winds, 30-50 km/h / alpine high temperature near 0 / alpine temperature inversionFRIDAY - Cloudy with sunny periods / southwest winds, 10-20 km/h / alpine high temperature near 0 / alpine temperature inversion

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported in the region since Saturday.On Saturday a size 2.5 explosives triggered wind slab was reported on a southeast aspect at 2000m. On Friday an explosives triggered deep persistent slab size 2.5 was reported on an east aspect at 2100m

Snowpack Summary

Large variability in snow depths still exists in the region, ranging from almost no snow to nearly 200 cm in some areas. Upwards of 50-60 cm of snow fell late last week above 1500 m. The snow fell with strong southwest winds and sits on previous hard wind slabs, a scoured and shallow snowpack on exposed ridges, and soft snow in sheltered areas. Below 1500 m, expect to find a hard crust at or near the snow surface.For average snowpack areas, expect to find weak and sugary faceted snow around 50 to 100 cm deep, which extend to the ground. This weak bottom half of the snowpack has been the culprit for large avalanches in the region over the past few weeks.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deeply buried weak layers remain a concern especially with rising temperatures and freezing levels.
Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.Choose low-angled, mellow terrain without any consequences.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Steady south and southwest winds have created wind slabs in the lee of terrain features.
If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2