Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

FRIDAY NIGHT - Cloudy with flurries, up to 5 cm / southwest winds , 40-60 km/h, gusting to 80 km/h / alpine low temperature near -12SATURDAY - A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries / south to southwest winds, 25-40 km/h / alpine high temperature near -10SUNDAY - Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries / south to southwest winds, 30-60 km/h / freezing level 1400 m / alpine high temperature near -3, low temperature near -9MONDAY - Mainly cloudy with flurries, 5-10 cm / south to southwest winds, 35-65 km/h / freezing level 1500 m / alpine high temperature near -3, low temperature near -7

Numerous avalanches were reported in the region on Thursday. The storm slab has been very reactive, producing both natural and human triggered avalanches up to size 2.5. These have been up to 80 cm deep and numerous avalanches were triggered from a distance (remote triggered). On Friday, a size 3.5-4 natural avalanche in the Valemount area was reported to have run full path, burying a road on the west side of Kinbasket Lake. This avalanche occurred in the North Columbia region, but it is a significant event and is very close to the boundary between the North Columbia and Cariboo regions. These full path avalanches can catch people by surprise, especially when there is little to no snow in the valley bottoms.

60-100 cm of recent storm snow sits on a weak layer that consists of facets (sugary snow), surface hoar (feathery crystals), and a sun crust (on south aspects). Strong winds have promoted widespread slab formation.A weak layer from mid November is now buried up to 150 cm and consists of surface hoar in shady locations, and a sun crust on steep south facing slopes. The potential may exist for smaller avalanches to step down and trigger this deeper layer, resulting in very large avalanches. The most likely place for this layer to be a problem is on steep, south facing slopes at treeline where the surface hoar sits on the sun crust.At the base of the snowpack is a crust that formed in late October. The probability of triggering this layer is low, but the most suspect areas would be large, steep, rocky alpine features with a shallow snowpack. It would likely take a large trigger such as a cornice fall to produce an avalanche on this layer.