Avalanche Forecast

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A gulf Alaska "mother low" continues to sling smaller lows at the province keeping temperatures cool and offering small amounts of precipitation to the Cariboos. There is potential for a stronger system to move into the region this weekend, stay tuned for more details. THURSDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level beginning around 1000 m rising to about 1600 m, light southerly wind, 1 to 4 mm of precipitation possible.FRIDAY: Clear skies in the morning building to scattered cloud cover in the afternoon, freezing level beginning around 500 m rising to about 1600 m, strong south/southwest wind, trace of precipitation possible.SATURDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level holding around 1500 m, strong southwest wind in the morning becoming light in the afternoon, 1 to 4 mm of precipitation possible.

On Tuesday a natural size 2.5 cornice failure on a north facing alpine feature did not produce any additional avalanche activity when it impacted the steep slope below. In a different location a skier intentionally trimmed a cornice so that it would fall onto a north facing slope at 2500 m. When the small piece of cornice impacted the slope it triggered a size 1.5 wind slab avalanche 30 cm in depth. A natural size 2.5 wind slab was observed on a crossloaded east facing feature at 2400 m too.On Monday steep solar aspects produced natural loose wet avalanches to size 2 between 2000 and 2600 m. A size 3 natural cornice failure was also reported from a north facing slope at 2600 m.Natural loose wet avalanches to size 2 were widespread on all aspects Sunday.

A thin surface crust is now present on all aspects to at least 2000 m. This crust likely goes even higher on south facing aspects, and there may be a bit of preserved cold snow on high elevation north facing features. There are now a few different crusts in the upper 50 cm of the snowpack, but they have not been problematic. Fresh wind slabs have started to form immediately lee of ridge crest, continued new snow and wind should fuel their development through the weekend.There is some lingering concern around the mid-March Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) in the alpine where it is found 60 to 100 cm below the surface. This buried crust/surface hoar interface was widely reactive last week, but has not produced any avalanche activity in the last few days. It is likely trending towards dormancy, but we need to keep it in the back of our minds as it is capable of producing large avalanches should it fail. Deeper persistent weak layers from December and January are dormant at this time.