Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

THURSDAY NIGHT: Light flurries with localized accumulations of 5-10 cm, moderate west wind increasing in speed overnight, alpine temperatures drop to -16 C.FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries, strong west wind, alpine high temperatures around -6 C.SATURDAY: 5-15 cm of snow, strong southwest wind, freezing level climbing to 1500 m, alpine high temperatures around -4 C.SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy then clearing in the afternoon, strong west wind, alpine high temperatures around -6 C.

By Thursday afternoon, skier traffic produced a few small (size 1) avalanches in the new snow.The most recent reports of larger avalanches are from last weekend when warm temperatures stressed some of the deeper layers in the snowpack. On Saturday, a size 2 natural deep persistent slab avalanche was observed on a south facing slope at 2100 m (more details here). There is also a great MIN report from the neighboring Lizard Range where a group of sledders share about their near miss on a steep southwest facing feature at ridgecrest.

The new snow is burying large surface hoar crystals and/or sun crusts, which could eventually develop into a touchy problem as snow accumulates. The most suspect terrain features will be steep slopes and rolls below 2000 m (where the largest surface hoar exists) and steep south-facing slopes in the alpine (where sun crusts exist).Large variability in snow depths still exists in the region, ranging from almost no snow to nearly 200 cm in some areas. For average snowpack areas, expect to find weak and sugary faceted snow around 50 to 100 cm deep, which extend to the ground. This weak bottom half of the snowpack has been the culprit for large avalanches in the region over the past few weeks.