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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 29th, 2021–Dec 30th, 2021
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

Temperatures have moderated slightly on the Icefields Parkway but extra layers & a cautious attitude is still recommended.

Wind slab is our primary concern however deep persistent slabs have been triggered by cornices & surface avalanches recently.

Weather Forecast

Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. 

Alpine temp: high -20 C. Weak alpine inversion.

Wind: West 10km/h

Friday: A mix of sun and cloud.

Alpine temp: low -23 high -20 C. Weak alpine inversion.

Wind West: 10 km/h

Saturday: Mainly Cloudy with isolated flurries. Trace Precipitation

Alpine high -17

Wind South West 20km/h

Snowpack Summary

Cold temps are faceting the upper snowpack but pockets of wind slab are still present on all aspects at & above tree line. The mid-pack is supportive with the dec 1 crust interface down approx. 40 cm in most locations. Basal faceting continues below the Nov 5 crust potentially amplifying the deep persistent slab problem.

Avalanche Summary

A natural size 2.5 avalanche was observed on Mt. Wilcox during a road patrol today. Estimated date Dec 27th. This avalanche appears to have started as a wind slab, stepping down to deep persistent slab mid path. View min report here

Marmot Basin reported a similar observation with a natural cornice failure triggering deep persistent slab Dec 24.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Variable wind direction over the past week has caused reverse loading in many areas.

  • Variable winds have created pockets of wind slab on all aspects.
  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

Recent avalanche observations have shown that deep persistent slabs can be initiated by large triggers such as surface avalanches or cornice failures. 

  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger the deep persistent slab.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Loose Dry

Extra vigilance is warranted in steep terrain, ice climbs, and gully terrain traps where small avalanches can build into larger volumes.

  • Be careful of loose dry sluffing in steep, confined or exposed terrain.
  • Avoid travelling on ledges and cliffs where sluffing may have severe consequences.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5