Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Tuesday night: Increasing cloudiness, moderate northwest winds with strong gusts in the alpine, treeline low temperatures near -6 C, freezing level dropping to 300 m.

Wednesday: Cloudy, 5-10 cm of new snow, moderate northwest winds with strong gusts, treeline high temperatures near -3 C, freezing level around 500 m.

Thursday: Cloudy, 5-10 cm of snow by midday, moderate west winds, treeline high temperatures rising to +2 C in the afternoon, freezing level rising to 1600 m by late afternoon. 

Friday: Cloudy, 5-15 cm of snow above 1200 m, strong southwest winds with extreme gusts, treeline temperatures near 0 C, and freezing level staying around 1200 m. 

It may be possible to trigger avalanches in wind-drifted terrain on Wednesday. In steep, sheltered terrain, small dry loose avalanches may be triggerable in areas where the snow has not formed a slab. An observation of a recent glide slab release is a great reminder to maintain margins around glide cracks. 

Since Sunday's storm, there have been several reports of small dry loose sluffs in steep terrain (see this MIN report from Mt Allan Brooks). On Sunday, operators observed several small (up to size 1.5) slab avalanches releasing naturally in the new snow. 

25-40 cm of snow has returned to the mountains above 1100-1200 m (see this MIN and this MIN from Mt Elma). Below these elevations, the new snow cycled through a melt-freeze cycle. 

Strong southwest winds during Sunday's storm has since become moderate from the northwest, redistributing the recent snow into wind slabs across a range of aspects at upper elevations. Monitor for changing slab conditions as you move into wind-exposed terrain. 

The weekend storm snow sits over a thick and supportive crust extends to mountain top. The middle and base of the snowpack are well settled and strong. Below treeline, the snowpack has receded back to marginal levels with many hazards present. 

• Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
• Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
• If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.