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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 16th, 2022–Feb 17th, 2022
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Watch for wind slabs in steep alpine terrain. Avalanches are less likely where thick crusts exist near the surface.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy skies with isolated flurries bringing trace amounts of snow, moderate wind from the west, treeline temperatures drop to -12 C.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy skies with some light flurries bringing a trace to 5 cm of snow, moderate wind from the west, treeline temperatures around -5 C.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries bringing a trace to 5 cm of snow, moderate wind from the west, treeline temperatures around -3 C with freezing level around 1500 m.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with flurries bringing 10-15 cm of snow, strong wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -5 C.

Avalanche Summary

New snow on Tuesday and Wednesday resulted in several small (size 1) avalanches in steep alpine terrain and was reactive to skiers in some isolated pockets.

Snowpack Summary

5-15 cm of fresh snow overlies a variety of surfaces. Higher elevations are heavily wind effected with a melt freeze crust on solar aspects. Lower elevations hold a widespread thick melt freeze on all aspects with surface hoar sitting above the crust in sheltered terrain. The late January interface is buried 15-40 cm deep, and consists of a melt-freeze crust at lower elevations and on solar aspects extending into the alpine. Surface hoar sits above the crust in sheltered areas at treeline and below. The snowpack below is well consolidated, with the early-December crust/facet persistent weak layer buried 100-200 cm deep. It is currently considered dormant. We expect this layer to become active later this season, check out the forecaster blog for more information.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Small reactive wind slabs are likely found near ridgetops. Slabs could be more reactive where they overlie buried surface hoar or smooth crusts.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5