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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 19th, 2019–Dec 20th, 2019
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

High snowfall amounts and strong winds will elevate the avalanche hazard for the next few days.

Avoid overhead hazard and avalanche terrain.

Weather Forecast

The infamous 'atmospheric river' (I wonder who coined that term??) is flowing through our region for the next two days. Forecasts along the Divide predict snow accumulation up to 25cm on Friday, 25+cm on Saturday and another 10cm by Sunday morning. Temperatures will rise as the freezing level reaches 1600m. Winds will be strong from the SW.

Snowpack Summary

Recent strong winds have formed wind slabs in the alpine and exposed tree line areas. The snowpack structure is generally weak, consisting of facets and depth hoar and will be stressed by the incoming storm snow. The Nov crust is present up to 2500m and ~30 cm up from ground. Snowpack depths at treeline range from 80-160 cm.

Avalanche Summary

No new natural avalanche activity in the past few days, though there have been reports of skier triggered wind slabs up to sz 1.5.

Explosive avalanche control at local ski areas have produced sz 1.0 windslabs in steep, wind loaded areas.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Friday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

As the storm intensifies on Friday, expect the incoming snow and strong South West winds to build touchy wind slabs on lee aspects in the alpine and exposed areas at tree line.

  • Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created slabs over weaker snow.
  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Loose Dry

As the snow accumulates, expect sluffing and point releases from steep, rocky terrain and gullies.

  • 874
  • If triggered dry loose point releases can form deeper deposits in terrain traps.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

The incoming storm snow will stress the weak, faceted snowpack. Lots of uncertainty surrounds this layer, but if triggered it could result in a large avalanche.

  • Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3.5