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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 16th, 2019–Jan 17th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Rockies.

Triggering large avalanches remains possible from thin rocky areas on steep slopes.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods, moderate west wind, alpine temperatures drop to -15 C.THURSDAY: Light snowfall along eastern slopes as upslope storm brings 5-10 cm of low density snow, moderate to strong southeast wind, alpine high temperatures around -12 C.FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries, strong west wind, alpine high temperatures around -6 C.SATURDAY: 5-10 cm of snow, strong southwest wind, freezing level climbing to 1500 m, alpine high temperatures around -4 C.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported in the region, but natural avalanches continue to be reported in the Kananaskis region to the north.On Saturday, a size 2 natural deep persistent slab avalanche was observed on a south facing feature around 2100 m (more details here). There is also a great MIN report from the neighboring Lizard Range where a group of sledders share about their near miss on a steep southwest facing feature at ridgecrest.

Snowpack Summary

Recent warm alpine temperatures left crusty surfaces on south aspects while the snow appears to have remained dry on north aspects.Large variability in snow depths still exists in the region, ranging from almost no snow to nearly 200 cm in some areas. For average snowpack areas, expect to find weak and sugary faceted snow around 50 to 100 cm deep, which extend to the ground. This weak bottom half of the snowpack has been the culprit for large avalanches in the region over the past few weeks.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deeply buried weak layers remain a concern. These layers are more easily triggered in areas where the snowpack is shallow, such as near ridges and rocky terrain.
Avoid steep slopes in areas with a thin or variable snowpack.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

An upslope storm will form new wind slabs on a wide range of aspects on Thursday. Older wind slabs may still be lingering at higher elevations.
If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2