Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

Thursday: Moderate to locally heavy snowfall / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 1000mFriday: Heavy snowfall / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 1200mSaturday: Moderate snowfall / Moderate southwest winds / Freezing level at 1100m

Numerous natural and human-triggered storm slabs to size 2.5 were observed on Tuesday and Wednesday. In at least one case, an avalanche was triggered remotely from a distance of 30m. This speaks to the touchy nature of the current instability.

Between 50 and 80cm of recent snowfall overlies a medley of old surfaces which include: weak surface facets, surface hoar, thin wind slabs, a scoured crust, or any combination thereof. Professionals are expressing particular concern for the combination of buried facets on a crust being unusually reactive at lower elevations. Reports of whumphing and widespread avalanche activity further indicate a poor bond between the new snow and these old surfaces. Strong to extreme winds are shifting the new snow into deeper, reactive wind slabs in exposed terrain. With forecast warming and more snow on the way, the reactivity and destructive potential of the new storm slab will likely increase.The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well-settled. Basal facets and depth hoar are likely to exist in some parts of the region, but triggering has become unlikely.