Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Monday: Cloudy with flurries. The freezing level rises to 1200-1400 m and winds are light or moderate from the S-SW. Tuesday: Periods of snow – 15-25 cm. The freezing level is around 1400-1600 m. Winds increase to moderate or strong from the SW. Wednesday: Moderate to heavy snow or rain. The freezing level spikes to around 2000 m and winds remain strong from the S-SW.

No new natural avalanche activity was observed on Saturday. Explosives control produced mostly small (size 1) storm slabs with a couple deeper size 2 slabs from steep rocky slopes. Clear weather gave a better picture of the widespread natural cycle on Thursday and Friday. Most observers reported numerous size 2-3 slabs from all aspects and elevations. Many of these slabs released on the mid-January surface hoar, released on relatively low angle slopes, and showed very wide propagation.

The "Pineapple Express Light" dumped 80-160 mm of precipitation on the South Coast this week. Most of this fell as snow above 1800-2000 m (over 1 m) with mixed rain and snow or just heavy rain below 1800 m. Heavy snow and strong winds have formed deep and dense wind slabs in exposed lee terrain and caused substantial cornice growth. Expect to find a rain crust at or near the surface (below 10-20 cm of fresh snow) at lower elevations. The early and mid-January surface hoar layers may have been wiped out by the storm and subsequent avalanche cycle. These layers would be down between 100 and 150 cm deep now. Tread cautiously until we know more about the state of these persistent weaknesses. The mid and lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of shallower snowpack areas that may be more faceted.