Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear, light wind from the north, alpine temperatures drop to -40 C.

TUESDAY: Sunny, light wind from from various directions, alpine high temperatures around -30 C.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny, light wind from various directions, alpine high temperatures around -28 C.

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, moderate wind from the south, alpine high temperatures around -20 C.

There have been limited field observations recently, but enough to suggest the persistent slab avalanche problem remains a concern. A large persistent slab avalanche was triggered by a rider in the neighbouring Clemina area on Friday (see the MIN report) and riders on Belle Mountain near McBride reported "thunderous" whumpfing in south facing terrain at treeline. Some of these older MIN reports provide helpful photos of slopes where this layer has been a problem (here, here, and here).

As cold arctic air settles over the region expect wind slabs in unusual places due to recent valley winds from the north, while sheltered areas still have 10-30 cm of soft powder. The main concern is a layer of surface hoar that formed in late December, which is now buried 60-120 cm deep throughout the region. This layer is most likely found on sheltered slopes at and below treeline. Reports suggest the reactivity of layer may be variable, as on some slopes it is well bonded while on other slopes it is still very reactive.

• Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.
• Be alert to conditions that change with elevation, aspect and exposure to wind.