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Avalanche Forecast

Nov 27th, 2021–Nov 28th, 2021
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Cariboos.

Stormy weather resumes. Carefully consider terrain above you. Natural avalanches are becoming more likely.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

This push of precipitation holds steady for a few days. Snow will be deeper and drier at higher elevations, and shallower and wetter at treeline and below.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Freezing level rising to 1700 m. Strong south wind, 10-20 cm of snow is expected. Think on the higher side in the alpine, and shallower and wetter at treeline and below. 

SUNDAY: Overcast. Freezing level 1700 m. Strong southwest wind. 0-10 cm snow expected, mostly in the morning. 

MONDAY: Overcast, with possible afternoon breaks in the cloud. Freezing level 1400 m. Moderate southwest wind. A dusting of snow is expected, possibly up to 10 cm around Castle Creek.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Freezing level rising through the day to 1800 m. 5-15 cm of snow expected. 

Avalanche Summary

Just east of the forecast region, a size 2 slab avalanche in a wind-loaded alpine feature was reported on the Mountain Information Network. See here for more information.

The North Rockies field team was riding west of McBride on Wednesday, and they found isolated wind slabs 15-25 cm deep in lee slopes with the potential to produce small avalanches (see MIN post here). 

The consistent storm pattern has given the snowpack little time to stabilize between snowfalls.  

If you are getting out in the mountains, we strongly encourage people to share observations on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Snow from the ongoing storms continues to form slabs, especially in wind exposed terrain. You'll likely find wind hammered hard slab in the alpine. 

The mid and lower snowpack contains multiple crusts that seem to be holding strong. 

Snowpack depths are around 100 cm below treeline, but shrink rapidly below 1600 m. Alpine snowpacks are expected to be around 140 cm deep, but could be 200 cm or more in areas with more snowfall or wind-transported snow. The deepest snowpacks this season have been reported near Blue River and Valemount.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
  • Remember that the snowpack will be significantly different at higher elevations than lower down.
  • Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3