Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, trace of new snow, light westerly wind, temperature low -16 C.

TUESDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods, trace of new snow, moderate west wind, temperature high -10 C.

WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, trace of new snow, light westerly wind, temperature high -6 C.

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, trace of new snow, light westerly wind, temperature high -5 C.

On Monday, skiers triggered a size 1 avalanche in the alpine from a short distance away. On Sunday skiers triggered avalanches up to size 2.5 on open features at the treeline/alpine interface in the Lizard Range and Tunnel Creek. These failed on the late January persistent surface hoar layer (see this MIN as an example). 

Despite the lack of snow, there has been an increase in activity on the persistent weak layer. On Thursday and Friday there were human and remote triggered avalanches up to size 2 reported. Locations like Mount Fernie, 2000, Liverwurst and McDermid were a few location examples. Some avalanches were triggered from a distance away. 

February has been a busy one for avalanche activity with human triggered avalanches going back well over a week that are too numerous to list. Do some research and check out the MIN reports in our region when planning your trip, you can read them here.

Surface faceting and surface hoar growth is promoted by clear nights and frigid temperatures. Below 1600 m a hard melt-freeze crust is underneath 20-40 cm recent snow. 

A persistent weak layer lurks 30-70 cm below the surface. In some places it consists of surface hoar, in other places just facets, or crust/facet combinations. This weak interface has been responsible for the majority of recent avalanches. Reports suggest the surface hoar interface at treeline is the biggest repeat offender, and things have been most reactive on northerly and easterly aspects, but don't let your guard down elsewhere.

A solid mid-pack sits above a deeply buried crust and facet layers near the bottom of the snowpack (150-200 cm deep), which is currently unreactive. 

• Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
• Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
• Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
• Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.