Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Wind speed and direction is uncertain on Thursday

It should be relatively cool and dry for the forecast period. Winds are expected to remain light and variable until Wednesday afternoon when they begin to steadily increase out of the SW as a warm and turbulent pattern digs in. Freezing levels are expected to remain at valley bottom until Friday afternoon when they are expected to climb all the way to 2500m.

No new avalanches have been reported. Last Wednesday a size 2 avalanche was accidentally triggered on an east aspect in the alpine by a sledder near Racehorse Pass (Crowsnest) on the December persistent weak layer.

Recent sunny weather and high freezing levels have decimated the lower elevation snowpack. As a result the threshold for avalanches in most of the region has risen to approximately 1600m, potentially higher on solar aspects. 4-8cm of new snow has covered up a melt freeze crust and/or surface hoar, or a combo of both. The melt freeze crust exists up to approximately 1900m and up to all elevations on solar aspects. Time will tell, but I suspect this new layer will likely cause problems down the line and is a good one to keep in mind as it becomes buried deeper over time. The mid-December crust/facet/surface hoar layer is down 40-85cm and is suspected to be reactive in isolated areas, especially where a slab of stiffer snow has consolidated above it. This layer has proven easier to trigger from shallow and rocky areas in the alpine and treeline.