Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Rockies.
Confidence
Moderate - Track of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Friday
Weather Forecast
Light to moderate winds overnight combine with 5-10 cm of new snow and alpine temperatures around -18. Clearing trend on Wednesday should provide broken skies at least by the afternoon. Clear and cold overnight with cloud and strong southwest winds developing on Thursday. The next Pacific moisture should move into the region by Friday.
Avalanche Summary
On Monday, a couple of size 2 avalanches were reportedly triggered by skiers in steep north and northeast facing slopes. Over the weekend, explosives and ski cutting produced storm slabs size 1-2 which were typically 20-60cm thick.
Snowpack Summary
The series of storms last week produced 70-90cm of new snow in the region. A rain crust which formed during the middle of the storm is now down 40-60cm and has become the primary layer of concern during the weekend storm. The early December interface consists of crust, surface hoar, and/or facets and is typically down 70-90cm. Around 20-30cm below this interface is a rain crust from mid-Nov with a thick layer of facets below it. Both the early-Dec and mid-Nov layers have become dormant and are likely being capped at treeline and below by the more recent rain crust layer. However, these layers may still be reactive to heavy triggers such as cornices, explosives, or smaller avalanches stepping down.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 5