Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Jordan, North Columbia, South Columbia, Whatshan.
Mushy snow remains down low, up high it will be crusty.
Thin slabs may exist and wet avalanches could persist.
Travel conditions will be tricky, trust me.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
The natural avalanche cycle observed on the weekend and earlier in the week due to the warming event has begun to taper with cooling temperatures. Numerous large (size 2-3.5) wet slab, persistent slab, and wet loose avalanches have been reported from all aspects and elevations.
Snowpack Summary
Moist or crusty snow surfaces exist from recent rain and warm temperatures. Up to 10 cm of new snow may overlie a crust in the alpine. At lower elevations the snowpack is isothermal.
The stress of the new load (warm, wet upper snowpack) has producing large slab avalanches failing down to the early/mid January persistent weak crust/facet layer (30-70 cm down) and the early December rain crust/ facet layer (100+ cm down). This activity is expected to taper with cooling temperatures.
The snowpack depth is roughly 150 cm at treeline.
Weather Summary
Thursday Night
Cloudy with light rain or snow, up to 5 mm. Alpine wind south 15 to 30 km/h. Treeline temperature 0 °C, freezing level 1800 m.
Friday
Mostly cloudy with light rain or snow, less than 5 mm. Alpine wind southwest 10 to 30 km/h. Treeline temperature -1 °C, freezing level 1700 m.
Saturday
Mainly cloudy with light flurries, up to 5 cm accumulation. Alpine wind northwest 15 to 40 km/h. Treeline temperature -3 °C. freezing level dropping to 1000 m.
Sunday
Mainly cloudy with light flurries, up to 5 cm accumulation. Alpine wind southwest 10 to 30 km/h. Treeline temperature -4 °C. freezing level dropping to 500 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- A crust on the surface will help bind the snow together, but may make for tough travel conditions.
- Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
- Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
In the alpine, pockets of wind-transported dry snow may form small but reactive wind slabs overlying a crust.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5
Loose Wet
At lower elevations where the snowpack may remain saturated from rain and warm temperatures, wet loose avalanches may continue to occur and could entrain significant mass, resulting in large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5