Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2018–Jan 16th, 2018

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: South Coast Inland.

Snow mixed with rain or wet flurries and strong winds are expected for the forecast period. The new snow will form touchy storm slabs, particularly on leeward, wind-loaded slopes. Watch for wet snow at lower elevations that receive rain.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 10-20 cm. Ridge wind strong, southwest. Temperature near 0. Freezing level lowering to 1000 m.WEDNESDAY: Cloudy, snow. Accumulation 15-20 cm. Ridge wind strong, south. Temperature 2. Freezing level rising to 1700 m.THURSDAY: Cloudy, snow. Accumulation 10-25 cm. Ridge wind strong, southwest. Temperature near 0. Freezing level 1400 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday there was a report of a skier triggered size 2.5 slab avalanche in the northern part of the region that initiated as a 30 cm thick wind slab then stepped down to approximately 70 cm thick (likely the mid December layer) on a north-east aspect at 2050 m.

Snowpack Summary

Recent warm weather has made the surface moist, especially at upper elevations. Below the moist surface, about 30-50 cm snow overlies a 1 cm thick crust that was buried on January 6. This crust exists up to about 2000m. Mid and lower snowpack layers including the mid December and late November crust layers have produced moderate to hard, sudden results in snowpack tests in the northern part of the region last week and may be a concern for step-down potential.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Loading from new snow and strong winds will build storm slabs on leeward aspects and exposed treeline areas near ridge crests. In northern parts of the region it may still be possible for a surface release to step down to a deeper layer.

If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind or rain.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2