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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2014–Jan 7th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

Careful snowpack evaluation and conservative decision-making is essential right now as theĀ  lingering deep instability will be with us for the foreseeable future.

Weather Forecast

A south westerly flow over the park with warming temperatures into Wednesday. Light amounts of precipitation and temperatures dropping to the mid teens overnight and single digits during the day. Stronger winds at ridge top elevations will stiffen the wind slabs and add to cornices.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30cm of low density storm snow overlies existing wind slabs which in places has a very weak faceted basal layer. Below tree line the snow pack has very little support except in isolated open areas where wind slabs may exist. New windslabs have formed at upper elevations but lots of snow is still available for transport.

Avalanche Summary

Road patrols in the South end of the forecast area observed numerous size 3 slabs that failed on the basal facets and widespread smaller avalanches to sz 2 on all aspects in the alpine involving windslabs and loose dry avalanches.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain on Wednesday

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.