Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 23rd, 2019 4:33PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Loose Wet and Cornices.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

South Coast Inland.

Even if the skies are cloudy you should avoid slopes that have wet and mushy snow. Check out this LINK to see how easy it is to trigger a loose wet avalanche.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

We're moving into a weather pattern more in keeping with seasonal norms. Monday night's storm should offer a nice refresh at upper elevations and temperatures should remain cool, at least through Wednesday morning.SATURDAY NIGHT: Light variable wind, freezing level around 1200 m, no significant precipitation expected. SUNDAY: Scattered cloud cover in the morning building to overcast by sundown, light variable wind, freezing level rising to around 1800 m, no significant precipitation expected.MONDAY: Broken cloud cover, light to moderate southerly wind, freezing level holding around 1800 m, no significant precipitation expected during the day. The freezing level drops to about 1200 m Monday night with 1 to 6 mm of precipitation expected. This will likely start as rain at lower elevations and should produce a trace to 5 cm of snow above treeline, stay tuned for more details.TUESDAY: Overcast, moderate west wind, freezing level around 1200 m, 5 to 10 cm of snow possible.

Avalanche Summary

In the far north of the region on Friday loose wet avalanche activity up to size 3 was reported on solar aspects. Sporadic natural slab avalanches were also reported in the alpine and treeline, but no activity was reported from north aspects. No new activity was reported from the central or southern portions of the region.On Wednesday, natural loose wet avalanche activity continued up to size 3 on SE-SW aspects in the northern parts of the region. In the South, a few natural loose wet avalanches were reported up to size 2 from steep solar aspects.

Snowpack Summary

Snow surfaces are variable. On higher North aspects (above 1700 m) you may find some dry, faceted snow. Some of this has been redistributed by southwesterly and northerly winds, potentially creating some isolated wind slabs. On solar aspects (South and West) at treeline and in the alpine the upper 10-30 cm will likely sport a firm crust with cooling temperatures. Below treeline the snow could remain moist or wet if it doesn't re-freeze. Below the melt-freeze crust on solar aspects and the wintery snow on the polar aspects down 40-60 cm sits the February facet interface. This interface may be reactive on higher North aspects where a firm surface crust doesn't exist. The snowpack has gone through a lot of change with the hot and sunny weather. We're expecting a good overnight refreeze on Saturday night and increasing cloud cover Sunday which should allow the upper snowpack to solidify.`

Problems

Loose Wet

A good overnight re-freeze Saturday night and increasing cloud cover Sunday should curtail loose wet activity, but it may still be possible to trigger loose wet avalanches at lower elevations where the snowpack remains soft and mushy.

Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet.Loose wet avalanches may be small but they can gain mass and push you into a terrain trap.

Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Cornices

Large weak cornices loom over many ridgelines and you don't want to be on or under one of these monsters when they fail.

Cornices become weak with daytime heating.Avoid slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if they have large cornices overhead.Cornices often break further back than expected; give them a wide berth when traveling on ridgetops.

Aspects: North, North East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 24th, 2019 2:00PM