Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 25th, 2019 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Loose Wet, Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Rising freezing levels and wet flurries on the weekend will increase the hazard. Not expecting this to be a widespread issue through the region but you need to stay aware to changing conditions locally, especially over head!

Summary

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with sunny periods. Precipitation: Nil. Alpine temperature: High -4 °C. Ridge wind west: 20 km/h. Freezing level: 1700 metres. A detailed mountain weather forecast is available from Avalanche Canada.

Snowpack Summary

Warming in the region Saturday will create isolated moist surface snow, snowballing, and likely wet loose slides. Wind effect well pronounced in the alpine and exposed TL areas. 10cm of low density snow overlies a mix of old facets and/or surface hoar and sun crust. A strong mid-pack sits over a deep persistent weaknesses of facets and depth-hoar.

Avalanche Summary

Older (-72hrs) size 1.5 triggered by a cornice in the Parkers Ridge Area from steep rocky terrain. Main area of concern is where overhead cornices threaten unevenly distributed snowpack areas, increasing the probability of triggering a deep weakness. Report, and read about riding conditions on Avalanche Canada's Mountain Information Network.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain on Saturday

Problems

Loose Wet

Pay attention to sluffing off cliffs and steep solar terrain, signs of a warming snowpack

Daytime warming will weaken surface layers, plan your day around being back to the trailhead early.

Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Moderate to strong winds have created new windslabs over a mix of surface conditions (facets, surface hoar, crust).

Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

Use caution in shallow uneven snowpack areas where deep weakness would be more reactive to a human trigger. An avalanche of this nature would be large with severe consequences.

Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 26th, 2019 4:00PM